The energy sector in Bulgaria is significant in terms of its contribution to the economy. Energy production in our country is heavily dependent on domestic coal production. However, Bulgaria is also highly dependent on imported energy resources (natural gas, crude oil and nuclear fuel). The energy sector will be among the sectors in Bulgaria that will be affected by climate change.
In recent years, extreme weather events have caused damage and disruption in the energy sector, with consequences for other sectors. However, these events have so far not significantly affected the energy infrastructure and in most cases have resulted in relatively limited damage to the electricity grid and temporary power outages. The increased frequency and intensity of such weather events is likely to create challenges for the sector in the future.
Extreme changes in climate and weather patterns will affect the energy sector both positively and negatively, although the negative impacts are predominant. This means that climate change poses a significant problem for energy security, not only because of the direct impact on infrastructure and energy distribution, but also because of the knock-on impacts on other sectors and areas, including food security and health.
1) Coal production:
- Damage to infrastructure and equipment: heavy rainfall poses a risk to operations and can damage infrastructure and equipment, leading to production disruption. The condition of mining sites may be affected by increased risk of flooding, subsidence, landslides, soil erosion and changing groundwater levels.
- Decreased coal quality: Increased rainfall and flooding can lead to decreased coal quality due to higher moisture content in open pit mining.
- Increased risk of heat stress for outdoor workers: with the predicted increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, weather-related heat exposure poses an increasing challenge to workplace health and safety.
2) Extraction and supply of natural gas:
- Changes in the country's climate in recent years have increasingly complicated the fire situation, especially during periods of high outdoor temperatures and prolonged summer drought in vast arable, semi-mountainous and some mountainous areas, increasing external risks to the gas transmission system. There is a risk of possible indefinite disruption of natural gas supplies with an expected impact on neighbouring countries, especially if transmission infrastructure to third countries is affected.
- Flooding is also a factor that can cause significant disruption to gas transmission and distribution infrastructure and their major elements: pipelines, compressor stations, gas distribution and metering stations. The occurrence of flooding may be a consequence of heavy rains and snows accompanied by unexpected heavy and rapid melting, extensive spillages, wind impacts in estuaries, breaches of dykes, weirs and tailings dams in the vicinity of gas infrastructure
3) Nuclear and thermal power plants:
- Reduced power plant efficiency: power plants will experience some reduction in output as higher air and water temperatures affect the efficiency of their cooling systems. Increasing ambient temperatures lead to a reduction in the difference between ambient and combustion temperatures, reducing the efficiency of generators, boilers and turbines.
- Availability of cooling water: due to increased risk of drought and greater competition for water resources, some power plants may face a reduced ability to extract and discharge cooling water.
- Infrastructure damage: increased temperatures can create favourable conditions for some invasive species to damage energy infrastructure. The dams that supply water to the cooling ponds of Bulgaria's three largest power plants offer suitable conditions for eutrophication and the growth of invasive species, and climate change could exacerbate these problems.
4) Renewable energy:
- Uncertainty in power generation: hydropower generation is likely to suffer from reduced rainfall, especially during the summer season. River flows will change due to changes in precipitation patterns and reduced snow and ice cover in mountainous areas.
- Reduction in the efficiency of solar and wind power generation: in general, solar power generation can be vulnerable to increases in cloud cover associated with increases in precipitation. For wind power plants, changes in wind behavior and intensity due to climate change can affect the performance of existing wind farms. In addition, extreme storms can damage wind turbines and potentially cause them to shut down.
5) Supply and demand balance:
- Changing energy demand: climate change may alter energy requirements for residential and industrial cooling and heating, the timing and magnitude of peak demand and adjustments in energy use for transport, construction and agricultural activities.
6) Electricity transmission and distribution:
- Infrastructure damage and outages: this includes: (a) the likelihood of more damage and disruption to transmission lines due to intense rainfall, flooding and winter storms; (b) an increase in threats to infrastructure functioning in mountainous areas due to the increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards (such as landslides, mudslides or flooding), mostly associated with rising outside temperatures; (c) the effects on the efficiency of power transmission due to the increased frequency of heat waves; and (d) the greater likelihood of power lines dropping below the minimum allowable distance above ground required by law due to higher temperatures
7) Heat generation and distribution:
- Reduced heating demand: Increasing temperatures due to climate change may gradually reduce heating demand
