In general, although Bulgaria's rural areas are rich in natural resources, they are characterised by lower incomes, limited job opportunities, an ageing population, higher levels of poverty (the majority of the rural population is at risk of poverty or social exclusion) and a resulting widening of the urban-rural divide in terms of social status and living standards.
Climate change will be an important factor for the future development of Bulgarian agriculture and the first negative impacts are already a reality. The frequency and intensity of adverse climatic events have increased in recent decades: there have been three distinct periods of drought, and more frequent flooding caused by prolonged and intense rainfall occurs regularly but is difficult to predict. Climate change scenarios for Bulgaria show an increased frequency of adverse climate events such as longer droughts, heat waves, intense rainfall and floods.
The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as a source of adequate food, a pillar for economic growth, a provider of ecosystem services and a livelihood for rural populations. However, the risk of climate change impacts is not evenly distributed spatially. Regions differ in their likelihood of negative impacts from droughts and floods, as well as in their vulnerability and the resilience and adaptive capacity of their populations to climate change.
These differences are reinforced by the pronounced dual farm structures and the uneven distribution of land that characterise the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. This leads to significant differences in resilience and adaptive capacity between:
- Large commercial farms that are economically vulnerable to the impacts of drought and flooding on crop yields and farm profits, but have greater resources to invest in adaptation measures
- Smallholder farmers who practice agriculture as semi-market farms and who are socially and economically vulnerable to adverse climatic events, but have greater internal resilience due to their more diversified production, stronger social relationships and diversification of farm income.
Extreme weather events and gradual climate change can have a strong impact on yields and production quality:
- Changes in the length of the growing season: A longer growing season would allow for a better spread of individual species and improve the opportunities for growing new, more thermophilic species or secondary crops.
- Agro-phenology. In Bulgaria, earlier flowering of trees, a longer season for vineyards and changes in other natural crop cycles are expected, affecting final yields. In the case of cereals, further contraction of the inter-phase periods from flowering to ripening is expected. A shorter reproductive period would also mean less time for grain filling, which would have a negative impact on yields
- Harvest yields. Yields depend on a number of factors, including the length of the growing season and other crop productivity factors. Changes in the volume of yields of the main crops (winter wheat, maize and sunflower) are forecast due to the projected rise in temperature and reduced rainfall. However, increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the future may create conditions for improved yields of some crops
- Increased risk of pests, diseases and weeds: Changes in temperature, moisture and atmospheric gas concentration not only stimulate the growth and generation of plants, fungi and insects, but also alter the interactions between pests and their natural enemies and hosts. Pests and diseases often lead to crop loss and increased use of pesticides and veterinary drugs. A longer growing season would also affect the spread of a number of weeds, diseases and pests
- Adverse effects on livestock production: livestock production will be adversely affected by increased heat stress due to the increase in temperature and humidity, which affects the health and welfare of the animals. Climate change may also affect the availability and quality of forage and grazing resources
- Increased risk of drought, erosion, desertification and soil salinization: more frequent and intense droughts are likely to increase soil dryness, which combined with hot winds will increase the risk of wind erosion and soil degradation. These factors increase the risk of triggering desertification, marginalisation and abandonment of farmland in areas where soils are lighter and vulnerable to erosion
- Risk of water scarcity: a combination of factors could lead to water scarcity in some regions of the country, resulting in increased irrigation requirements. Warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity will increase water requirements due to evapotranspiration in agricultural crops, although increased atmospheric CO2 levels will lead to higher water use efficiency due to reduced evaporation and increased photosynthetic rates
- Adverse impacts on fisheries and aquaculture: drought can lead to reduced water levels that pose a serious threat to fish farming systems and can also lower the levels of smaller mountain rivers and streams, which can lead to species loss.
