Causes of climate change

The main cause of climate change is man and his impact on nature. Humans are increasingly affecting the earth's climate and temperature by burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and raising livestock. This adds huge amounts of greenhouse gases to those released naturally into the atmosphere, exacerbating the greenhouse effect and global warming.

The main driver of climate change is the greenhouse effect. Certain gases in the Earth's atmosphere act somewhat like glass in a hothouse, trapping the sun's heat and stopping it from flowing back into space, causing global warming.

Many of these greenhouse gases exist naturally, but human activity is increasing the concentration of some of them in the atmosphere, in particular:
- Carbon dioxide (CO2)
- Methane
- Diazotene oxide
- Fluorinated gases

Carbon dioxide produced by human activities is the most important contributor to global warming. By 2020, its concentration in the atmosphere has increased to 48 % above pre-industrial (pre-1750) levels.

Other greenhouse gases are emitted by human activities in smaller quantities. Methane is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2, but has a shorter lifetime in the atmosphere. Diazine oxide, like CO2, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere over decades and centuries.

Natural causes, such as changes in solar radiation or volcanic activity, are thought to have contributed less than plus or minus 0.1°C to the overall warming between 1890 and 2010.

The main reasons for the increase in greenhouse gas emissions are:
- The burning of coal, oil and gas in power generation and transport releases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide
- Deforestation or so-called deforestation. Trees help regulate the climate by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. When they are cut down, the beneficial effect is lost and the carbon stored in them is released into the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse effect, e.g. by burning them
- Increasing livestock farming - cows and sheep produce large amounts of methane in the process of digestion
- Nitrogen-containing fertilisers produce emissions of nitrous oxide
- Fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that use these gases. They have a very strong warming effect - up to 23,000 times stronger than that of CO2

Consequences of climate change

When we talk about climate change, we are not just talking about the Earth's temperature. Climate change has adverse consequences for different regions, which will be exacerbated by continued warming. These include changes in humidity and drought, in winds, snow and ice, coastal zones and oceans.

Let's give some examples:
- Climate change is accelerating the water cycle. This will lead to more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more pronounced drought in many regions
- Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Precipitation is likely to increase in the north, while it is expected to decrease in much of the subtropics. Changes in monsoon rainfall are expected, which will vary by region
- Coastal areas will see a continuous rise in sea level, contributing to more frequent and more severe coastal flooding. Coastal erosion will increase. Extreme sea level events, which previously occurred once every 100 years, could now occur every year by the end of the 21st century
- Many terrestrial, freshwater and marine species will change their biological range and migration in response to climate change. This may lead to the accelerated extinction of some that fail to adapt to the changes
- Further warming will increase permafrost thawing, loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice
- Changes in the ocean, including those associated with warming, more frequent marine heat waves, ocean acidification and reduced oxygen levels are clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people who rely on them, and they will continue to impact at least through the rest of this century
- For cities, some aspects of climate change may be exacerbated, including exposure to heat (urban areas are generally warmer than their surroundings), flooding due to heavy rainfall and sea level rise in coastal cities

Something else very important - climate change generally worsens existing critical conditions such as poverty, lack of food, poor land management, migration due to wars, etc., and will affect the poorest and most vulnerable people as well as the countries in which they live.

National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2030

About countering climate change and their impact on the national economy, with the assistance of the World Bank, Bulgaria has prepared National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2030adopted by a decision of the Council of Ministers on 25 October 2019.

All sectors of the economy are expected to be affected by the climate changes that are coming. They will further impact on society and its citizens, as well as on the economy as a whole. The projected macroeconomic impacts of climate change draw attention to the increased costs of dealing with them if adaptation actions are not implemented. The effects of climate change will not affect all people and territories equally due to different levels of exposure, existing vulnerability and adaptive coping capacities. The risk is greater for sectors of society and business that are less prepared and more vulnerable.

The most common hydrometeorological and natural disasters in Bulgaria as a result of climate change are and will be extreme precipitation and temperatures, storms, floods, forest fires, landslides and drought. The vulnerability of Bulgaria's population and economy to the impacts of climate change is amplified by the relatively high levels of poverty in the most affected areas, the continued concentration of the country's population in a few industrial and urban areas, and the various consequences of the transition to a market economy. Increasing evidence suggests that economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters are also rising.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy covers nine sectors, each of which is expected to be affected by climate change:
1. Agriculture Sector
2. Sector "Gori"
3. Biodiversity and Ecosystems Sector
4. Water Sector
5. Energy Sector
6. Transport Sector
7. Urban Environment Sector
8. Human Health Sector
9. Tourism Sector